Although the market volatility has increased, the price of lithium salt is still in a rapid upward period, the price of lithium carbonate has been rapidly rising since October last year to drive a new round of capital expenditure of upstream lithium resources, and by the impact of the construction cycle of the mine salt lake, the first production projects this year are mostly brownfield resources that have stalled on the last round.
According to the analysis of Tianfeng Securities research report, according to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July this year, China's new energy vehicles achieved sales of 271,000 units, an increase of 6.0%. Looking back at the sales data of new energy vehicles in the past four years, the sales volume in July was the first time in the history of June.
Summary: This week, the lithium market price continued the overall rise. This week, the market price was affected by the relationship between supply and demand, and the price of lithium metal, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide continued to rise. Raw material end spodumene prices continue to rise, domestic lithium concentrate resources supply and demand is tight, salt lake lithium sunburn weakened, overall upstream resource supply has not improved. The demand for lithium carbonate continues to be strong, the market stock sentiment is high, the circulation of spot is less, and the inventory continues to decrease. This week, the domestic battery grade lithium hydroxide market continues to rise, the start of stable but output is subject to the tight supply of raw materials output in general, is expected to continue to drive strong demand in the future lithium prices. Overall, lithium carbonate, lithium metal and lithium hydroxide market demand is sufficient, the supply is slow, is expected to maintain the price trend in the afternoon.
Summary: The overall cobalt market price is weak this week. The domestic cobalt market continues to be weak, this week the international MB cobalt, cobalt tetroxide price shock down, cobalt powder prices temporarily stable, cobalt sulfate prices rose slightly. Raw material supply side, cobalt concentrate prices continue to decline, while cobalt intermediates imported about 25,000 tons in July, considering South Africa in July riots and shipping delay to September to October to port, August to October is expected to import a gradual upward trend, domestic spot inventory is tight, domestic raw materials are still tight. Combined with the third and fourth quarters of downstream cathode materials and cells, terminal enterprises continue to warehouse, digital 3C orders decline, market demand is also weak, and cobalt prices are expected to gradually stabilize in the later period.
Cobaltous oxide: The price of cobaltous oxide fell by 0.86% on Thursday. This week, the supply side was affected by the decrease in the price of cobalt tetroxide, and there was a certain willingness to let the price and the construction was relatively stable, and the output changed little. Demand side downstream market demand is poor, the whole market performance is poor, market turnover is small, refinery inventory accumulation. It is expected that the market price will gradually stabilize in the future.
Summary: This week the domestic zirconium market high and stable. This week, the domestic price of zircon sand is stable at a high level, zirconium oxychloride ushered in a significant price increase, and the overall market supply and demand relationship has not improved.
Zircon sand: The price of zircon sand in China is stable this week. This week, the domestic zirconium sand prices run smoothly, the overall market affected by the Tronox price increase, the market or will heat up again, the current downstream procurement wait-and-see sentiment remains, the future price of zirconium sand or will run strongly. On the supply side, it is expected that the supply of Tronox zircon sand will decrease in the next quarter, and it still takes time for the supply of RBM resources to enter the domestic market, and the market supply and demand relationship is difficult to improve in the short term. From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, it is expected that the price of zircon sand in the future will continue to remain high.
Zirconium silicate: The price of zirconium silicate is stable this week. Zirconium sand, the upstream raw material of zirconium silicate, continued to be tight and maintain high prices this week, resulting in the same high price of zirconium silicate. Domestic market with coal and natural gas and other fuel costs continue to increase, corporate profit margins narrow production pressure, downstream ceramics factory due to power rationing, environmental protection, market demand has weakened. On the whole, the current market quotation is more chaotic, but it is expected that the price of zirconium silicate will be stable in the future.
Summary: The market price of magnesium strengthened this week, with an overall sharp rise of 17.21%. On the supply side, Hongtai No. 1 Plant, Sheng Magnesium and Tengdali Magnesium resumed production this week, and metal magnesium production increased. Demand side magnesium powder and aluminum processing operating rate also increased, the overall demand is relatively stable. At the beginning of this week, a large number of just-needed orders entered the market, leading to a rapid rise in magnesium prices, and the spot shortage exacerbated the short-term supply shortage, and the quotation stood at 30,000 yuan. Overall, with the future downstream demand volume, spot will continue to be scarce, raw materials still have upward momentum in the short term, the current factory order number to mid-September after the market is expected to continue to show a rise in magnesium prices.
Summary: This week, manganese prices ushered in a general increase. The main production areas still exist, from September, Guangxi will further comply with the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Catalogue (2019)" attribute restriction category, allowed category of high energy consumption enterprises to suspend production, limited production and other measures, limited production enterprises in September production shall not exceed 50% of the first half of 2021 average monthly production. In addition, some enterprises in Inner Mongolia entered the shutdown maintenance period in September, further reducing supply.
Manganese ore: Manganese ore prices edged up 1.23% this week. The spot price of port manganese ore did not fluctuate much from last week, due to downstream production constraints, the overall inquiry is not positive. At present, Guangxi, the main production area of silicon manganese in the south, is still more severe, the inventory pressure of manganese ore in southern ports is relatively large, and the spot price of some mainstream manganese ore in northern ports is slightly increased. Affected by the price increase of the downstream silicon manganese market, it is expected that the price of domestic manganese ore may be further increased in the outside market. On the whole, although the downstream market is better and the outer price is more optimistic, the demand contraction caused by the limited production in the main producing areas and the inventory pressure in the southern port are larger, it is expected that the price of manganese ore will continue to be stable.
Electrolytic manganese: The internal electrolytic manganese market continued to rise to 5.26% this week. On the supply side, benefiting from the relief of pressure on some small hydropower plants in the South, the operating rate of electrolytic manganese increased slightly this week, but the current market circulation spot is still less. On the demand side, affected by the dual-carbon policy, the downstream stainless steel may have production reduction expectations, but is subject to the low inventory in the early stage, and still maintains a high demand. Taking into account some large factories and Guangxi power rationing policy, the price of electrolytic manganese is difficult to fall in the future and is expected to remain high. (Tianfeng Securities) Summary: We believe that the supply of lithium salt is relatively limited during the year, while downstream demand will continue to improve, lithium salt supply and demand will maintain a tight balance, and lithium price center is expected to continue to rise.